A well-worn cliché says there are only two things you can be certain about: death and taxes. With apologies to those who agree with that statement, there are many, many more examples of out-and-out certainties. Was Sunday followed by Monday last week? Absolutely. Will that be the case next week? You can count on it.

A more timely and, in some ways, comforting example involves the ever-changing situation we find ourselves in today with COVID-19. This pandemic has seemingly pressed pause on time, stifling businesses in many ways and rattling humankind as we’re told that each day is fluid, and we’re not sure what the next day will bring. Monday will still follow Sunday, but will it be business as usual? Right now, the answer is no.

But, if Hard Trends, or future certainties, are as easy to identify as I maintain, what is the Hard Trend in all of this? It’s as obvious as my days-of-the-week anecdote above: This virus will end, and that is a fact that will happen. Because of this, you better believe that, aside from the length of the coronavirus’s impact, there are still Hard Trends in every industry, plus plenty of opportunity in the disruption that is this global pandemic.

In order to be able to identify Hard Trends during these unprecedented times, we must diagnose the very concept of Hard Trends and how they can lead to significant game-changing opportunities for you and your organization.

What’s a Hard Trend?

As previously stated, a Hard Trend is a future certainty, in that it is something we know is going to occur whether we want it to or not. Opposite of Hard Trends are Soft Trends, which are future possibilities that may or may not take place. In the case of Soft Trends, these can be changed to your and your organization’s benefit.

To further explore my Hard Trend Methodology and how it can help you be more anticipatory during times like we currently face, I have grouped Hard Trends into three primary categories for identification purposes.

Demographics. This can be age, race, gender, or any other defining characteristic of a group. During this pandemic, an example is an older generation like the Baby Boomers. The fact that they are more susceptible to COVID-19 is a definite Hard Trend.

Government Regulations and Oversight. For this category, a broad question immediately comes to mind: As a general rule, will there be more or less government regulation in the future? If we’ve learned anything from the coronavirus pandemic, it is that there will definitely be more. As new innovations emerge amid the lockdown, new governmental regulations will evolve in response to them. This is true, regardless of the industry or organization, making this a Hard Trend.

Technology. From the ever-increasing accessibility of 3D printing to holographic telepresence, technology is inevitably going to become more functional, more sophisticated and more widespread. In addition to how we have learned to use already-existing technology during the pandemic, this makes technology in any capacity a Hard Trend; we will always be finding a newer, better way to accomplish a task or create something.

Why Hard Trends Matter

Knowing that something is a future certainty means so much more in times like these. It’s central to your organization’s planning and subsequent execution of innovation, even during an economic shutdown.

In terms of government regulation, coupled with the ever-changing spectrum of this pandemic and subsequent lockdown, being aware of the Hard Trend of growing government regulation allows you to become more anticipatory with those additional guidelines foremost in your mind, allowing you as an organization to continue to progress and grow.

Leveraging Hard Trends to your advantage is how you can also pre-solve problems before they exist. Case in point: When the United States government mandated a stay-at-home order, closing the physical operations of many nonessential businesses, many threw up their hands in frustration, while others decided to adapt and overcome, taking advantage of opportunities to continue to operate during a shutdown — and profited accordingly. What you can expect is that Hard Trends — identified and acted upon — can offer enormous opportunities for those organizations with the mindset of always keeping their eyes open to the future.

Use Soft Trends to Influence the Future

There are certain things about the future that we simply can’t change. Some are rather obvious. For instance, spring will always follow winter. New Year’s Day will always be January 1, at least in many parts of the world. Those are chronological certainties.

There are other future certainties that have nothing to do with the calendar. For example, are the phones we use in the future going to be capable of doing more or less? Of course, they’ll be able to do more. That’s a certainty.

But what about those things that aren’t quite so cast in stone? For instance, will it be colder tomorrow than today? No one can say for certain. Will the stock market rise or fall? Your guess is as good as mine.

The Definition of Soft Trends

Although events that lack certainty may be unnerving to some, I absolutely love them. I call them Soft Trends, and they are a central principle of the overall Anticipatory Organization Model.

Soft Trends are future maybes: those events, developments and other things that may or may not take place.

As I mentioned earlier, one of the greatest appeals of Soft Trends is that they can be changed. They can be altered and, depending on what you know about them and how you use them, they are open to influence, leverage and, ultimately, enormous opportunity.

Further, there are positive Soft Trends as well as negative Soft Trends — in so many words, those trends that you want to maintain and build on and those that you may wish to reverse.

For instance, one Soft Trend is the growing number of students furthering their education through online learning. That’s certainly a good thing and a Soft Trend that you may like to nurture and possibly leverage.

By the same token, the number of obese people continues to increase — a Soft Trend, and a negative one at that. In looking to influence this Soft Trend, you’d likely investigate ways to try to reverse this disturbing health pattern.

Hard and Soft Assumptions

Another component of Soft Trends is the assumption that underlies them. On one hand, there are Hard Assumptions — defined, empirical data and information. Soft Trends supported by Hard Assumptions are more likely to happen.

For instance, rising health care costs in the United States is a Soft Trend, but one supported by Hard Assumptions — decades of data detailing steady increases in costs. That makes it more likely to continue in the future.

On the other hand, Soft Trends underscored by Soft Assumptions are less likely to occur. Moreover, treating them as though they offer greater certainty than they do can be a dangerous misstep. For example, when the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was implemented, there was a Soft Assumption that there would be enough young people signing up to offset the higher costs of older participants. One problem: There was no comprehensive research in place to support that — one of many Soft Assumptions that had an adverse effect on the ACA’s launch.

The Need to Carefully Identify Soft Trends

Paying attention to Soft Trends can unlock enormous opportunities for you and your organization.

But the caveat is first recognizing the difference between Soft Trends and Hard Trends, which are future certainties. The simplest explanation is, if you have to think about it, it’s a Soft Trend. Hard Trends are generally obvious at first glance.

Moreover, it’s critical to separate Soft Trends that are driven by Soft Assumptions from those underscored by Hard Assumptions. Even though Soft Trends are never a future fact, they carry a far greater level of confidence when they are associated with Hard Assumptions. A Soft Trend with a Soft Assumption, on the other hand, could be much less of a sure thing.

You can see that Soft Trends offer enormous opportunities if you know how to identify them and with what level of confidence you can use them to your advantage. So, with that in mind, what Soft Trends can you pinpoint that will impact you, your organization or your entire industry?